Trends in epidemics pertaining to notifiable infectious diseases in China and prediction models for key diseases: a case study of Ziyang County

The incidence of tuberculosis decreased consistently, whereas the incidence of influenza rebounded sharply after nonpharmaceutical interventions were lifted. The SARIMA models reproduced seasonal patterns but showed limited accuracy for influenza and HFMD, reflecting the influence of surveillance changes, behavioral shifts, and sparse data. These findings highlight the need for complementary approaches-such as models explicitly accounting for structural breaks-to improve the reliability of local infectious disease forecasts.