Unravelling the environmental Phillips curve in ASEAN: the role of unemployment, economic growth, and innovation on carbon emission using PMG-ARDL approach

The Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesizes a trade-off between unemployment and environmental degradation; however, its validity remains underexplored in the ASEAN context. This study investigates the EPC using annual panel data from seven ASEAN countries (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) from 1995 to 2020. The analysis employs the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator, while robustness checks are conducted using the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators. The results confirm the validity of the EPC in ASEAN: unemployment is associated with reduced carbon emissions in the long run, and this relationship remains consistent across alternative estimators. Economic growth and energy consumption are found to be the primary drivers of rising emissions, while technological innovation and green technological innovation moderate their impacts by improving efficiency and lowering the emissions intensity of energy use. The Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test further highlights dynamic interlinkages among key variables, complementing long-term equilibrium results. A key novelty of this study lies in differentiating between general technological innovation (patents) and green technological innovation (imports of low-carbon technological products), offering a more nuanced perspective on the innovation and emissions nexus. These findings underscore the need for ASEAN countries to strengthen regional cooperation, accelerate the adoption of sustainable technologies, and design integrated policies that reconcile job creation with environmental sustainability, in line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 8 and SDG 13).