Evaluation and prediction of land use and land cover changes in the Suha watershed of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Anthropogenic activities, particularly in regions with high population growth, have profoundly impacted land use and land cover (LULC), driving significant changes that affect global hydrological processes, watershed soil and water management, and streamflow dynamics. This study assessed LULC dynamics and predicted future trends in the Suha watershed, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia. LULC maps for 1992, 2007, and 2022 were developed using Landsat data from USGS Earth Explorer and maximum likelihood supervised classification. Future LULC changes for 2037 and 2052 were predicted using the CA-Markov model. Results revealed substantial changes, with agricultural land expanding from 77.92% in 1992 to 87.42% in 2022, while shrubland, forestland, and grassland declined by 7.3, 4.76, and 0.37%, respectively. Projections indicate further reductions in forest cover, from 2.48% in 2022 to 0.41% by 2052, alongside an increase in built-up areas to 8.67% by 2052. These findings highlight rapid LULC transformations, with significant conversions of forest, shrubland, and grassland into agricultural land expected. This study provides critical insights to support sustainable land-use planning and management, guiding decision-makers in mitigating ecological and environmental impacts.