Spatio-temporal variations and disparities of China’s aluminum supply through a gravity-decomposition approach

Despite China's dominance in global aluminum production, systematic analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and regional contributions to its primary and secondary aluminum supply remains limited. This study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution and regional contributions of China's aluminum supply through a gravity-decomposition framework. Results reveal two distinct spatial regimes: primary aluminum production concentrates in energy-rich western provinces, while secondary aluminum clusters in eastern coastal regions. The gravity center of secondary aluminum shifted southward faster than primary production. Decomposition analysis identified key contributing provinces for secondary aluminum. The forecast analysis indicated a dual-track distribution trend between primary and secondary aluminum supply. Our findings provide a novel methodological framework for aluminum industrial spatial dynamics and quantitatively attribute regional contributions, offering insights for region-specific sustainable aluminum governance.