The Impact of Digital–Green Synergy on Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces in China

The synergy between agricultural digitalization and greening is an inherent requirement for high-quality agricultural development and is a vital pathway for cultivating agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs). Based on 2012–2023 provincial-level data from 30 Chinese provinces, this study constructs comprehensive evaluation index systems for agricultural digitalization, greening, and ANQPFs. A coupling coordination model is applied to measure the degree of digital–green synergy, and a two-way fixed effects model is employed to test its impact on ANQPFs, along with the underlying mechanisms and regional heterogeneity. The results indicate that digital–green synergy significantly enhances ANQPFs. A 1% increase in the synergy index improves ANQPFs by 29.6%, primarily through industrial structure optimization, technological innovation stimulation, and resource allocation efficiency improvement. The positive effect is most prominent in the central region, after Digital Village Strategy implementation, and in major grain-producing areas. This study innovatively integrates digitalization and greening into the analytical framework of agricultural productivity, expanding the theoretical understanding of how synergistic transformation drives high-quality agricultural development. Regarding policy, governments should strengthen coordination between digital and green policies, promote the integration and innovation of related technologies, and foster an enabling environment that supports the formation and evolution of new quality productive forces in agriculture.