Monsoonal Interactions on the Track of <scp>TC</scp> Doksuri (2023) and Global Models Performance

ABSTRACT Tropical cyclone (TC) Doksuri (2023) exhibited a sudden northward turn over the northeastern part of the South China Sea (SCS). However, most global models failed to capture such track change. The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final Analysis (FNL) data and The International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data were therefore used to study the underlying mechanisms for the sudden track change and the factors leading to the track forecast errors of different global models so as to give some insight for the forecasters in predicting such TC track change and global model developers in modifying the model physics. The non‐linear advection of the vorticity of the asymmetric winds associated with the monsoon trough over the SCS and that of the symmetric wind of the TC resulted in the sudden northward turn of the TC track. However, the strength and the eastward extension of the monsoon trough were underpredicted, leading to a westward‐moving track without a sharp northward turn. On the contrary, if the strength of the monsoon trough was overpredicted, the environmental steering was over‐altered, resulting in an early northward turn. The intensity and outer wind structure of the TC also played important roles in the monsoonal interaction and thus the track forecast errors.