A Combined TESS and Ground-based Study of Transit Timing Variations in HAT-P-16, TOI-1516 and TOI-2046 Systems

Abstract We present new results for the hot Jupiters HAT-P-16b, TOI-1516b, and TOI-2046b, based on photometric observations collected using both space- and ground-based facilities. Ground-based data were collected in the 2020–2024 time span with the 0.6 m telescope (ADYU60) located at the Adiyaman University Application and Research Center (Adiyaman, Türkiye) and the 1.0 m telescope at the Türkiye National Observatory (TUG, Türkiye). Through a combination of fits to our ground-based data, the midtransit times data from TESS, and additional data taken from the literature, we present an updated linear ephemeris for each system. Transit timing variations (TTVs) were analyzed using linear, orbital decay, and apsidal precession models. The resulting BIC(ΔBIC) values indicate that the orbital decay model is statistically favored for HAT-P-16b and TOI-1516b, while the constant period model is preferred for TOI-2046b. False alarm probabilities (FAPs) were computed to assess the significance of any periodic signals. TOI-1516b displays a strong TTV signal with a FAP (of 0.0001) well below the 0.01 threshold, suggesting a likely dynamical origin that warrants further investigation. The higher FAP value (0.0055) for HAT-P-16b suggests that the case of a possible presence of an additional body in the system is less convincing. In contrast, the much higher FAP value (0.0196) for TOI-2046b implies that there are no statistically significant TTVs.