Modelling of Insulation Thermal Ageing: Historical Evolution from Fundamental Chemistry Towards Becoming an Electrical Machine Design Tool

Electrical insulation systems (EISs) are the principal reliability bottleneck of modern electrical machines (EMs). Among the many stresses acting on insulation, thermal stress is the most pervasive because it accelerates chemical reactions that progressively erode dielectric and mechanical integrity, ultimately dictating service life. As EMs migrate into compact, high-power-density platforms—automotive, aerospace, and industrial drives—designers need lifetime models that are not merely explanatory but actionable, linking operating temperatures and missions to quantified ageing and risk. This review article traces the evolution of thermal-ageing modelling from fundamental chemistry to a practical design tool. The historical empirical lineage of Arrhenius equation, Arrhenius–Dakin model, and Montsinger model is first revisited, clarifying their assumptions, parameter definitions, and the construction of thermal endurance curves. A discussion then follows on extensions that address deviations from first-order kinetics and demonstrate how variable temperature histories can be incorporated through cumulative damage formulations suitable for duty-cycle analysis. Since models are required to be anchored in data, accelerated thermal ageing (ATA) practices on representative specimens are outlined, alongside a description of the Weibull post-processing for deriving percentile lifetimes aligned with design targets. Building upon these foundations, the Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach is introduced as a reliability-oriented design (ROD) methodology, in which validated lifetime models guide material selection and geometry optimisation while supporting prognostics and health management during operation. The emerging trend towards a hybrid PoF–AI approach is also discussed, which integrates artificial intelligence to identify nonlinear degradation patterns and drifting parameter relationships beyond the reach of empirical models, with physical constraints ensuring that predictions remain consistent with known ageing mechanisms. Such integration enables the learning process to adapt to operational variability and coupled stress effects, thereby improving both the accuracy and physical interpretability of lifetime estimation. The review aims to provide a concise view of models, tests, and workflows that convert thermal-ageing knowledge into robust, design-time decisions. By linking empirical and physics-based insights with modern data-driven learning, these developments support proactive maintenance, sustainable asset management, and extended operational lifetimes for next-generation EMs.