Policy Inaction Risks Breaching the 2°C Climate Target

Despite repeated increases in national climate pledges since the Paris Agreement, a significant gap remains between collective ambition and the action required to meet its temperature goals. Integrating these pledges with global models, we show that full implementation would still lead to approximately 1.7°C of warming, missing the 1.5°C target. When considering ongoing policy inaction, a cumulative shortfall of 505 GtCO₂e in anticipated mitigation is expected, and this warming increases by nearly 0.3°C, drastically narrowing the window to stay below 2.0°C. Our analysis reveals a critical disparity on a regional level: High-income nations are often meeting modest targets, while low-income countries face capacity constraints in delivering ambitious pledges. This imbalance underscores that persistent inequities in responsibility and resources are undermining global climate effectiveness. Closing the ambition-credibility gap urgently requires enhanced international cooperation and support to ensure a viable pathway for all.