Research on the Optimization of Urban Electric Heating Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Under Carbon Pricing Mechanism: A Case Study of Guangzhou City

This study establishes an urban-scale integrated energy system model, innovatively incorporating carbon emission cost constraints. Utilizing a source-load-storage collaborative planning approach, the research quantitatively evaluates the interplay between hydrogen energy penetration and carbon pricing policies on system evolution. A dynamic optimization algorithm is employed to identify the cost-minimal development pathway. Results reveal that a 30% increase in photovoltaic capacity and a 50% expansion in biomass power generation reduce annual system carbon emission intensity by 1.3 basis points, highlighting the decarbonization potential of renewable energy scaling. Hydrogen-based transportation substitution for fuel vehicles contributes 2.7% of the system’s total CO2 reduction through full lifecycle emission savings. At a carbon price of 140 yuan/ton CO2, market-driven energy structure optimization enhances renewable utilization by 11.2 percentage points, achieving a 0.3% annual reduction in societal emissions (equating to 297,000 tons). However, this scenario induces a 5% rise in end-user energy costs (approximately 530,000 yuan annually), underscoring the critical balance between decarbonization and economic viability. The study demonstrates that urban energy system planning must integrate dual objectives of carbon constraints and cost efficiency. Policy incentives are coupled with technological cost reductions in environmental and economic performance. This study provides quantitative evidence to guide low-carbon transition strategies for municipal energy systems.