Built Environment Effects on Hub-Oriented Travel Demands under Accessibility-Demand Mismatch: An Empirical Study in Shanghai, China

The accessibility of transportation hubs significantly influences intercity travel patterns, yet mismatches between hub-oriented demand and accessibility often exacerbate urban transportation disparities. This study proposes a two-stage analytical framework that combines quadrant classification with interpretable machine learning techniques. It aims to identify high-demand, low-accessibility areas and investigate the relationships between hub-oriented demand and built environment variables. The results indicate the following: first, areas with high hub-oriented demand but poor accessibility are primarily located at the periphery of core hub zones and within emerging new towns, indicating that infrastructure development has not kept pace with urban expansion. Second, among built environment factors, workplace density exerts the strongest influence on travel demand, followed by the distribution of commercial facilities and recreational venues and the availability of public transit services. Third, the relationships between the built environment and hub-oriented travel demand are nonlinear, with notable threshold effects and considerable spatial heterogeneity. These findings underscore the importance of targeted, location-specific policies to bridge accessibility gaps. Overall, this study offers a robust framework for understanding urban travel demand patterns and supports the development of equitable and sustainable transportation planning strategies.