Stability and bifurcations of a two-patch SIS model with delayed surveillance feedback

In this paper, we propose a delayed two-patch SIS epidemic model with surveillance-mediated infection and dispersal rates. The well-posedness of the model is established using functional differential equation theory, and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived via the next-generation matrix method. Analytical thresholds related to dispersal behavior are obtained, and the existence and stability of boundary and endemic equilibria are investigated using stability and Hopf bifurcation theory. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical results and highlight the impact of time delay, infection rates, and surveillance-based dispersal rates on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the dispersal of susceptible individuals alone can initiate transmission in otherwise disease-free patches. We also find that [Formula: see text] and key thresholds are independent of time delay, while the transient dynamics and stability of equilibria are significantly influenced by heterogeneous parameters such as self-protection level and attention to past surveillance. Dispersal rates exhibit bidirectional effects (either inhibiting or enhancing) on the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] in heterogeneous environments, and it exhibits high sensitivity to this effect. The synergistic interactions among self-protection intensity, time delay and surveillance-mediated parameters significantly influence the bifurcation dynamics of endemic equilibria. Therefore, for the effective disease control strategies, we must account for not only the management of population mobility, but also the multifaceted influences of infection rates, media influence, and regional heterogeneity.

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Journal
International Journal of Biomathematics
Published
2025-11-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793524525501554
Primary Topic
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
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article
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article

Stability and bifurcations of a two-patch SIS model with delayed surveillance feedback

Zhen Jin, Ali Mai, Guowei Sun
International Journal of Biomathematics
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
article

Stability and bifurcations of a two-patch SIS model with delayed surveillance feedback

Zhen Jin, Ali Mai, Guowei Sun
article en

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a delayed two-patch SIS epidemic model with surveillance-mediated infection and dispersal rates. The well-posedness of the model is established using functional differential equation theory, and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived via the next-generation matrix method. Analytical thresholds related to dispersal behavior are obtained, and the existence and stability of boundary and endemic equilibria are investigated using stability and Hopf bifurcation theory. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical results and highlight the impact of time delay, infection rates, and surveillance-based dispersal rates on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the dispersal of susceptible individuals alone can initiate transmission in otherwise disease-free patches. We also find that [Formula: see text] and key thresholds are independent of time delay, while the transient dynamics and stability of equilibria are significantly influenced by heterogeneous parameters such as self-protection level and attention to past surveillance. Dispersal rates exhibit bidirectional effects (either inhibiting or enhancing) on the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] in heterogeneous environments, and it exhibits high sensitivity to this effect. The synergistic interactions among self-protection intensity, time delay and surveillance-mediated parameters significantly influence the bifurcation dynamics of endemic equilibria. Therefore, for the effective disease control strategies, we must account for not only the management of population mobility, but also the multifaceted influences of infection rates, media influence, and regional heterogeneity.

International Journal of Biomathematics
Yuncheng University (CN), Shanxi University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 54%
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
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Stability and bifurcations of a two-patch SIS model with delayed surveillance feedback — Zhen Jin, Ali Mai, et al. · International Journal of Biomathematics (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS