Setting reference GHG emissions for research activities

The carbon footprint of academic research has attracted growing attention in recent years, with numerous assessments conducted at the level of universities or research departments. Yet, methodological inconsistencies and small sample sizes limit comparability and hinder generalization, while concrete mitigation targets remain underdeveloped. This study draws on a national database covering about 157,000 research staff in 700 units-roughly one-third of French public research-between 2019 and 2023. Emissions are assessed across five major sources: purchases, professional travel, commuting, electricity, and heating. The dataset is used to (i) model structural determinants of research-related GHG emissions and (ii) establish reference values to guide mitigation strategies. We develop a framework to identify robust statistical models to predict average emissions levels per source. Based on staff composition, supervisory body, research domain, and geographical location, these models explain up to one-third of inter-unit variance and improve predictive accuracy by 8%–23% over baseline averages. Embedded in an online tool, these models help support the design of efficient, equitable, and realistic mitigation targets. • A national-scale database of GHG emissions from research activities is analyzed • The methodology developped is applicable across heterogeneous contexts and datasets • Structural constraints are found to shape GHG levels, profiles, and mitigation targets. • An online application enables research entities to find reference values for mitigation targets. • Tool supports the implementation of mitigation strategies in academia.