Why Do Politicians Overestimate Richer Voters' Opinions? Social Background and Interest Group Influence

Abstract Research on political representation has shown that the opinions of poorer voters are less well represented than those of richer voters. This study examines inequalities in politicians' perceptions of public opinion and investigates why some politicians have biased perceptions that favour richer voters. Two factors were considered. Firstly, descriptive representation is expected to play a role, with politicians from higher‐status backgrounds being more likely to overestimate the opinions of higher‐income voters. Secondly, politicians reporting contact with profit‐oriented business groups are more likely to misperceive public opinion in favour of richer voters. This research uses data from surveys of politicians and citizens in Switzerland. Citizens gave their preferences regarding concrete policy issues, and politicians estimated public opinion on these same issues. The analysis finds a significant effect of politicians' backgrounds: politicians with higher‐status backgrounds are more likely to misperceive public opinion in favour of richer voters compared to working‐class politicians.