On the Dangers of Overthinking: A Natural Experiment on Self‐Regulatory Thought, Mind‐Wandering and Undergraduate Exam Performance

ABSTRACT Despite extensive research on motivational factors in academic performance, little is known about the role of ongoing conscious thought. Mind‐wandering has been linked with poor educational outcomes, yet can also benefit goal‐directed behaviour. We reasoned that mind‐wandering should benefit exam performance under certain motivational conditions, including mental contrasting (viewing one's goal in terms of both desired outcome and obstacles to achievement). In an online survey followed by an exam, university students described their assessment goal and reported expectations, exam‐related mind‐wandering (EMW) and other measures. We predicted that (A) convergence between expectations and performance would be tighter, and (B) EMW would positively predict performance, in students exhibiting mental contrasting. Contrary to predictions, we found no moderation of the expectation‐performance relationship, and regarding the EMW‐performance relationship, mental contrasters achieved especially low grades when mind‐wandering frequently about the exam, possibly reflecting a tendency to ‘overthink’ negative aspects. Theoretical and methodological implications are discussed.