Securing China's chromium supply through circular economy

Ensuring a stable and sustainable supply of chromium (Cr) has become an important global issue, as many countries rely on imports to meet their demands and Cr plays a vital role in industrial production. This study aims to address such concerns by tracing the Cr flows and stocks along its life cycle in China for the period of 2020-2023 through a dynamic material flow analysis. Scenario analysis is then conducted to project future Cr supply and demand until 2050 under various circular economy strategies. Results indicate that the total Cr flows and stocks increased slightly from 2020 to 2023 due to the stable growth of stainless-steel industry. The demand for Cr is projected to peak in 2024 as both per capita in-use stock and population approach their maximum levels. Under a combined policy scenario, China's reliance on Cr imports could decrease to 8% by 2050 if the domestic EoL recycling rate reaches the global leading level (95%) and the primary Cr resource efficiency is improved across all stages of the Cr industrial chain. Furthermore, under a technology breakthrough scenario, demand reduction and material substitution strategies could reduce import reliance to 3 % by 2050. These findings highlight the critical role of circular economy strategies, including recycling, substitution, and resource efficiency improvement, in enhancing national Cr supply security. Finally, several policy recommendations are proposed to improve Cr resource efficiency.