Prospective climate change impacts of Swiss forest management and wood utilization strategies by integrating biogenic carbon dynamics

Forests and wood products play crucial roles in climate change mitigation, yet their climate impacts remain poorly understood. We couple empirical Swiss forest development models with dynamic life cycle assessment to evaluate climate impacts of two forest management scenarios (reference and increased harvest) and four wood utilization scenarios (business-as-usual, increased material use, extended lifetime, and chemical substitution) in Switzerland from 2014 to 2113. Results reveal that increased harvest leads to higher climate impacts compared to the reference management practices under empirical modeling, contradicting simplified regrowth model conclusions favoring increased harvest. The contrasting results underscore uncertainty in forest carbon projections, warning against simplified carbon-neutrality assumptions of biogenic CO 2 emissions. Increased wood use for construction applications and extended product lifetimes demonstrate climate benefits, while diverting wood from energy to chemical production increases emissions. We emphasize the necessity of improved forest carbon modeling for informed climate mitigation strategies and recommend prioritizing long-lived wood construction applications.