Turbine siting in relation to wind speed: Insights from historical deployment patterns for energy system modeling

Wind turbine output heavily depends on the wind speed at the deployment site. Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) typically allocate turbines in a cost-optimal manner, leading to siting at the windiest locations. However, such allocation methods lack an empirical base and risk overestimating the cost-competitiveness of wind power compared to real-life. This study assesses the historical siting of onshore wind turbines with respect to wind speed across 25 regions and introduces a heuristic method to represent wind power deployment patterns within ESOMs. Additionally, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing wind turbine allocation methods in ESOMs. Our results show that turbines are typically sited at locations with slightly higher wind speeds than the regional mean, and new turbines within each region are consistently placed at sites with similar average wind speeds each year. The heuristics that best match historical deployment patterns tend to allocate 80–100 % of wind capacity to the 70th to 90th percentiles of the windiest areas. The cost-optimal turbine siting approach consistently favors windier locations compared to historical deployment. Overall, the findings present a promising avenue for incorporating historical data to improve the representation of wind power in future energy system modeling. • Most turbines are deployed at sites with wind speeds higher than the regional mean. • Wind turbines are sited at similar average wind speeds over time. • Heuristics based on historical data site wind capacity in the 70–90 % windiest areas. • Cost-optimal siting of turbines in ESOMs deviates from historical deployment.