Environmental determinants of household recycling behavior: An econometric analysis of participation barriers and willingness-to-pay

• Household decision-making analysis addresses the WTP for recycling programs. • An integrated framework models intentions, barriers, and payment behavior. • Grouped Random Parameters Bivariate Probit Models employed for robust estimation. • Discrete payment thresholds emerge, with 93 % of respondents rejecting both lower pricing tiers. • Fee‑based recycling programs are economically unsustainable. Traditional economic models do not account for the complex relationships between residents' environmental goals, barriers to participation in municipal recycling programs, and payment behaviors. This paper presents a framework that examines the three related areas: household intentions to join recycling programs, perceived obstacles, and willingness to pay (WTP) for recycling services. The methodology in this paper adopts the Grouped Random Parameters Bivariate Probit Models with a four-tier pricing structure. The results show that unobserved differences greatly influence multiple WTP decisions, supporting the bivariate models’ use. Both engagement intentions and perceived barriers are important predictors of payment behavior. The joint probability estimates indicate that 93 % of households reject both lower pricing tiers. Only 7 % accept fees of USD 1 to 3 but turn down those between USD 4 to 6, indicating a clear ceiling on WTP. Households that report a lack of bin availability are 0.131 times less likely to accept even the lowest fees, showing the negative effect of infrastructure issues. The results also show that 69.9 % of high-income households (earning over USD 2800 monthly) accept fees in the USD 11 to 14 range, while middle-income households (USD 700 to 1400) consistently reject the USD 4 to 6 tier. Service frequency emerges to influence payment behavior more than environmental motivation. Our findings suggest that recycling programs relying on user fees may struggle financially without additional funding sources. This study supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 12 by providing practical suggestions for creating fair, effective, and context-sensitive recycling policies.