Understanding the Spatio‐Temporal Relationships and Drivers of Cultivated Land Multifunction Supply–Demand Mismatch Towards Targeted Cultivated Land Management

ABSTRACT Managing cultivated land multifunction supply–demand (CLMSD) relationships and controlling certain drivers to maintain well‐matched cultivated land multifunction (CLM) combinations are key challenges in the sustainable use of cultivated land resources. Although methods have been established in the CLM research focusing on CLMSD matching, a complete understanding of the spatio‐temporal relationships and drivers of CLMSD mismatch is still lacking. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for assessing and managing CLMSD based on supply–demand bundles. This framework incorporates the bundle method and integrates spatio‐temporal analysis methods for CLMSD: quantifying the supply, demand, and supply–demand relationships of CLM at different periods; identifying CLMSD bundles using self‐organizing maps; analyzing the tradeoffs/synergies of CLMSD relationships in conjunction with supply–demand bundles; and exploring the driving factors using redundancy analysis. The results revealed that the supply–demand of the production function in Xinjiang remained relatively stable during the study period. The supply of ecological function increased by 42%, whereas its demand remained largely unchanged. Similarly, the supply of life function increased by 49%, whereas its demand remained relatively stable. Both the supply and demand for the landscape culture function indicated an upward trend, with increases of 18% and 138%, respectively. Overall, the CLMSD relationships were characterized by a surplus. Three CLMSD bundles were identified in the study area, and the CLMSD relationships and spatial locations of each bundle differed significantly. Bundle 1 was primarily located in the desert and was characterized by low supply and demand for CLM. Bundle 2 was concentrated in oasis cities and was characterized by the synergistic development of CLMSD relationships. Bundle 3 was situated near the Tianshan Mountains and was characterized by the highly synergistic development of CLMSD relationships. In addition, the direction of influence of the trade‐offs/synergies and drivers of the three types of bundles was not constant over time, and the degree of influence varied. Based on this, we propose different cultivated land management strategies. This study emphasizes the importance of considering the spatio‐temporal relationships and drivers of CLMSD mismatch when designing cultivated land protection and management strategies, and may serve as a reference for addressing the complex human–land relationship.