Nitrification inhibitors applied in strip-tillage patterns are effective in increasing corn yield and reducing nitrogen footprint by 2100

Environmental problems arising from fertilizer application are becoming increasingly evident in corn cultivation, especially on fertile soils where nitrogen fertilizer application is high and further reductions in nitrogen losses are difficult to achieve. The use of strip-tillage, combined with optimal nitrogen fertilizer management, is strategically important for stabilizing crop yields and reducing reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses, as well as for combating climate change and promoting sustainable agricultural development. (1) to assess the effects of tillage patterns and the application of inhibitors on corn yield and nitrogen losses; (2) to evaluate the impacts of tillage patterns and inhibitors on nitrogen footprint metrics; and (3) to employ DNDC modeling to quantify the effects of tillage patterns and inhibitors on corn nitrogen footprints under future climate change scenarios and to identify the optimal nitrogen fertilizer management strategy using comprehensive evaluation. This study employed the DNDC model, calibrated using field measurement data from clay soils in the Northeast region, and combined it with three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585), to simulate and analyze the synergistic effects of tillage practices (strip tillage, ST; conventional tillage, CT) and nitrogen fertilizer types (no nitrogen, N0; urea, U; urea with urease inhibitor, UI; urea with nitrification inhibitor, NI) on nitrogen loss and yield over the next 80 years. Additionally, the entropy weight method was used to assign weights to various predictive indicators and conduct a comprehensive evaluation. Two years of research showed that ST-UI and ST-NI increased yields by 37.8 % and 41.9 %, respectively, compared to the control, reduced N 2 O emissions by 9.1 % and 22.6 %, respectively, and reduced nitrogen footprints by 19.5 % and 12.5 %, respectively. Model simulation values (nRMSE < 30 %, d > 0.90) showed high consistency with field measurement values. The results of the 80-year forecast indicate that under the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, corn yields increase while Nr losses and nitrogen footprint (NF) decrease. Conversely, under the SSP585 scenario, corn yields decrease while Nr losses and NF increase. The comprehensive evaluation score of the prediction results shows that ST (0.13) has greater potential for increased production and emission reduction than CT (0.09), while NI (0.15) is superior to UI (0.14) and far higher than U (0.05). The combination of ST and NI is the best planting pattern under current and future climatic conditions, providing valuable ideas and references for the green and sustainable development of corn production on clay soils. • ST-UI increased yield by 37.8 %, reduced NH 3 volatilization and Nr loss by 19.1 %, 18.2 % compared to control. • ST-NI increased yield by 41.9 %, reduced N 2 O emissions and NF by 22.6 %, 12.5 % compared to control. • Synergies year+tillage+N fertilizer do not have an impact on altering maize yields and N losses to meet the conditions for long-term projections. • Future climate change will reduce corn yields and increase NF, which can be offset by ST + UI/NI. • The best management option for synergistically achieving increased production and emission reductions in the period 2020–2100 is ST+NI.