Assessing the energy transition pathways: Achieving net zero goals in Sierra Leone by 2050

This study examines how Sierra Leone can transition to low carbon pathways for electricity production, reducing the dependence on fossil oil fuels that contributes to high emissions and volatility in fuel prices. The research utilized a mixed-modelling approach by soft-linking the OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System) and Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) modelling frameworks to explore four energy scenarios: Business as usual (BAU), High Import (H_Imp), Net Zero (NZ) and High Demand (HD). Results demonstrated the important role of hydro, imports, and to a lesser extent solar technologies in transitioning to achieve net zero goals by 2050 especially in the net zero scenario, but yielding a USD 482 million increase over the BAU approach, albeit with heavy fossil oil and natural gas switching around 2040 in the BAU. Less liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity is invested in the NZ and replaced by imports, leading to emissions rates tending towards net zero from 2040. The large investment required in the net zero scenario is indicative of financing mechanisms external to national budgets. Policy recommendations include long-term strategy for renewables in line with fossil oils phasing out plans, update and realign government's renewable targets, and setting up an effective regulatory framework that grants grid operational access as well as incentives for private investment in renewables. These strategies are necessary to reduce the overall fossil fuel oil use in electricity production in Sierra Leone whilst achieving reduction in greenhouse emissions, thus aligning with global climate goals and national sustainable energy objectives.