Impacts of Future Climate and Farmland Changes on the Potential Cultivation Suitability of Apricot in China

Global climate warming and the evolution of land-use patterns are jointly reshaping the spatial configuration of fruit tree cultivation. Focusing on apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) in China, this study constructs a comprehensive suitability assessment framework driven by the dual forces of climate change and farmland transformation. By integrating multi-source climate datasets, projected land-use data, and geostatistical analysis, the study evaluates the impacts of climate and farmland changes on the potential cultivation suitability of apricot under four SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) during 2021–2100. The results indicate that: (1) climate warming generally expands potential suitable areas, showing a latitudinal shift from low to high regions; (2) under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, moderately suitable areas increase significantly, whereas highly suitable areas degrade in the long term due to excess heat and water stress; (3) farmland transformation exerts a crucial constraint between climatic potential and actual plantability, as resource reduction and spatial mismatch limit development potential; and (4) climate factors contribute approximately 72% to suitability variation, while farmland factors contribute about 28%, with a significant spatial interaction between the two. This study reveals the dynamic evolution of apricot suitability patterns under the dual drivers of climate and land changes, providing a scientific basis for fruit industry optimization and spatial land-use planning.