Using an Empirical Approach to Narrate the Role of Circular Economy in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (9 and 13)

ABSTRACT This study empirically examines how circular economy (CE) contributes to the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; and SDG 13: Climate Action), drawing evidence from China as a policy laboratory for emerging economies. A multidimensional sustainable development (SD) index is constructed using principal component analysis of economic (GDP per capita), social (unemployment), and environmental (GHG emissions) indicators for 2007–2024. The Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model is employed to capture both short and long‐run effects of CE across different sustainability regimes, while controlling for education (EDU), innovation (INN), and population (POP). Results reveal that CE has weak short‐run effects in low regimes but strong long‐run positive impacts, particularly in higher quantiles. EDU yields immediate and sustained gains, INN shows delayed positive returns, and POP exerts persistent negative pressure across periods. The findings offer evidence‐based insights to advance CE‐led sustainability transitions in emerging economies.