Do economic achievements and environmental consequences coincide? The case of cyclicity

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThe significance of green economic growth opens up a new space for studying cyclical development processes, raising the issue of coexistence between sustainable development and the cyclical features of economic growth. The purpose of this study is to identify statistically significant relationships between cyclical components (fluctuations) of economic growth and environmental consequences within national economic systems. The paper utilizes Hodrick–Prescott and Butterworth bandpass filters to detrend dynamic series of ecological and economic development, highlighting cyclical components (fluctuations) that are analyzed for the presence of correlation in the referenced and lag periods (to identify procyclical and lag dynamics). The analysis uses statistical data from the World Bank for Ukraine and Hungary for 1991–2022. The results prove that for Ukraine with an increase in the cyclical component of GDP per capita there is a cyclical increase in pollution indicators, according to the Butterworth filter for NOx emissions from industrial combustion (correlation coefficient 0.72), F-gases emissions from industrial processes (correlation coefficient 0.77), CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (correlation coefficient 0.70). The situation with Hungary is different, and the business cycle is not correlated with pollution fluctuations. The paper does not find a statistically significant relationship between the business cycle and fluctuations in methane (CH4) emissions from waste (Mt CO2e). Overall, most economic and environmental components are procyclical in nature, with the strongest correlation in the reference period for a developing industrial economy (Ukraine). In contrast, there is no such link within a more developed economy (Hungary).AcknowledgmentsThis research was conducted within the project “Restructuring of the national economy in the direction of digital transformations for sustainable development” (№0122U001232) funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.