Ecosystem services supply–demand matching in rapid urbanization: A county-level analysis of Zhejiang, China (2000–2020)

• Assessing regional ecosystem services (ESs) from longer time series and shorter time intervals. • Exploring the impact of multiple driving factors on comprehensive ES supply–demand ratio. • Elucidating the trade-offs and synergies transformation mechanisms of energy service supply and demand matching. • Findings are a valuable basis for sustainable ES management. Understanding the dynamics of ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand, along with their trade-offs and synergies, is essential for effective regional management. Although numerous studies have examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of ESs, strategies for addressing long-term supply–demand mismatches remain limited. In this study, we quantified the supply, demand, and supply–demand ratios of five ES types across county-level cities in Zhejiang Province, China. The results indicate that, with the exception of water yield and leisure services, ES supply lagged behind demand. Specifically, high-supply zones for soil conservation and food production contracted, whereas carbon storage zones expanded. The comprehensive ES supply–demand ratio (CESDR) exhibited a declining trend initially but subsequently increased, influenced by factors such as nighttime lighting, GDP per capita, precipitation, and NDVI.