The Impact of Market-Oriented Carbon Regulation on the High-Quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry—Based on Double Machine Learning

Promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry is an important strategy for China’s economic transformation and upgrading, as well as the realization of sustainable development, and the manufacturing industry is also a critical field for environmental regulation. What impact does market-driven carbon regulation have on the high-quality development of manufacturing firms? Taking the carbon emission trading pilot policy as a “quasi-natural experiment” of market-driven carbon regulation, this paper selects micro panel data from Chinese listed manufacturing enterprises spanning 2003 to 2021 and uses the double machine learning method to evaluate the effect of market-oriented carbon regulation on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. The study finds that the carbon emission trading pilot policy notably boosts the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. Further mechanism analysis reveals that the policy has exerted a significant innovation effect, while the resource allocation effect is not yet significant. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the carbon emission trading pilot policy has a significant promotional effect on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in eastern and western regions, as well as state-owned and technology-intensive manufacturing industries. The research conclusions provide theoretical reference and practical insights for the construction of a national unified carbon market and the promotion of the green and low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry.