Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Türkiye’sElectricity Generation: Evidence of Structural Change and Decarbonization Challenges (1990–2022)

This study investigates the driving forces behind changes in carbon dioxide emissions from Türkiye’s electricity generation sector over the ‎period 1990–2022 by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method. The analysis disaggregates total emissions into four main effects, carbon intensity, thermal efficiency, fossil share, and total generation, to identify how each component has ‎shaped the evolution of emissions across distinct development phases. The results indicate that the expansion of total electricity generation ‎has been the dominant driver of emission growth, reflecting Türkiye’s rapidly rising electricity demand driven by industrialization, urbanization, and economic growth. Improvements in thermal efficiency and carbon intensity contributed modestly to emission mitigation in the early ‎years but proved insufficient to counterbalance the growing scale of electricity production. After 2010, the influence of carbon intensity ‎became particularly pronounced due to the increasing reliance on coal within the fossil fuel mix. In contrast, the gradual rise of renewables, ‎especially wind, solar, and geothermal, began to exert a moderating effect by reducing the overall share of fossil fuels in total generation. ‎These findings highlight a critical structural transition in Türkiye’s power sector: the coexistence of expanding electricity demand and a ‎slowly diversifying energy mix. Achieving sustained emission reductions will require accelerating renewable deployment, improving power ‎plant efficiency, and reducing dependence on coal. Strengthening policy instruments, such as renewable incentives, carbon pricing, and grid ‎modernization, will be essential to align the electricity sector with Türkiye’s 2053 net-zero target‎.