The lifecycle of railway stations and its effect on property prices: Empirical evidence from Japan

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between real estate prices and the age of railway stations using a hedonic price model and Generalized Additive Models. By drawing parallels between the life cycle of railway stations and human life stages, we examine how property prices evolve in response to the opening, maturation, and eventual decline of stations over time. The analysis focuses on real estate data within a 15-min radius of railway stations in Japan, considering both Tokyo and non-Tokyo regions. The results show distinct price patterns corresponding to different stages in the station's lifecycle: initial price increases due to capitalization effects from the opening, followed by a decline as stations age, and subsequent price appreciation following redevelopment efforts. The study highlights the importance of station age as a significant factor influencing real estate prices and provides insights into the need for strategic urban redevelopment policies at key lifecycle stages. The findings contribute to the understanding of station-area price dynamics, with implications for urban planning and real estate investment strategies.