Modeling the impact of traditional remedies on the transmission dynamics of Mpox

Mpox, a re-emerging zoonotic disease, presents a significant public health challenge, particularly in regions with limited access to modern healthcare. The widespread use of traditional remedies in affected communities shapes health-seeking behaviors and can influence adherence to medical guidelines. While previous studies have modeled Mpox transmission, they largely ignore the impact of sociocultural practices on disease dynamics. This study advances the field by developing a mathematical model that simultaneously incorporates human and rodent populations and explicitly accounts for behavioral factors governing the choice between traditional remedies and modern medical care. The basic reproduction number (R0) is computed using the next-generation operator and used in the stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibria. Analytical and numerical results indicate that traditional remedies can reduce transmission when applied in ways that support timely medical care, but their unregulated or delayed use may prolong the infectious period, impeding effective disease control. Sensitivity analysis identifies the transmission rate from untreated infectious humans to susceptibles (β1) as the most influential parameter on R0. The findings reveal that integrating sociocultural practices into public health strategies is essential to enhance Mpox prevention and control. By integrating epidemiological modeling with sociocultural behaviors, this study provides a novel framework for evaluating Mpox control strategies, offering actionable insights for developing culturally responsive health policies that combine traditional healing with scientifically validated interventions, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of disease prevention and control.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Scientific African
Published
2025-11-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03085
Primary Topic
Poxvirus research and outbreaks
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Modeling the impact of traditional remedies on the transmission dynamics of Mpox

Fadhili Mustafa Mrope, Aziza J. Iddi, Nkuba Nyerere, Geoffrey K. Karugila
Scientific African
Poxvirus research and outbreaks
article

Modeling the impact of traditional remedies on the transmission dynamics of Mpox

Fadhili Mustafa Mrope, Aziza J. Iddi, Nkuba Nyerere, Geoffrey K. Karugila
article en

Abstract

Mpox, a re-emerging zoonotic disease, presents a significant public health challenge, particularly in regions with limited access to modern healthcare. The widespread use of traditional remedies in affected communities shapes health-seeking behaviors and can influence adherence to medical guidelines. While previous studies have modeled Mpox transmission, they largely ignore the impact of sociocultural practices on disease dynamics. This study advances the field by developing a mathematical model that simultaneously incorporates human and rodent populations and explicitly accounts for behavioral factors governing the choice between traditional remedies and modern medical care. The basic reproduction number (R0) is computed using the next-generation operator and used in the stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibria. Analytical and numerical results indicate that traditional remedies can reduce transmission when applied in ways that support timely medical care, but their unregulated or delayed use may prolong the infectious period, impeding effective disease control. Sensitivity analysis identifies the transmission rate from untreated infectious humans to susceptibles (β1) as the most influential parameter on R0. The findings reveal that integrating sociocultural practices into public health strategies is essential to enhance Mpox prevention and control. By integrating epidemiological modeling with sociocultural behaviors, this study provides a novel framework for evaluating Mpox control strategies, offering actionable insights for developing culturally responsive health policies that combine traditional healing with scientifically validated interventions, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of disease prevention and control.

Scientific AfricanVol. 30
Openalex Percentile: Top 63%
Poxvirus research and outbreaks
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