The Main Features of Climatic Conditions of the Winter Season 2023/2024 according to Monitoring Data and Forecasts

This paper presents key findings of a comprehensive analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during the 2023/2024 winter season. The performance of consensus seasonal forecasts for Northern Eurasia is evaluated with a particular focus on their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation regimes. A qualitative assessment of the World Meteorological Organization multi-model ensemble forecasts and the North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF) consensus forecasts for the 2023/2024 winter seasonal anomalies (air temperature and precipitation) has shown the superior predictive skill of the consensus approach, which has been created using equally weighted outputs from three Russian models: SLAV (Hydrometcenter of Russia/INM), MGO (Main Geophysical Observatory), and INM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics).