Uniform corrosion assessment in oil and gas pipelines using commercial corrosion prediction models – Part 2: uncertainty and risk considerations based on statistical analyses of gravimetric laboratorial tests, offshore pipelines inspections, and manu

Uniform Corrosion stands out as the main damage mechanism attacking the inner surface of oil and gas pipelines, especially in the offshore context, resulting in equipment losses and economic, safety, and environmental consequences. This challenge highlights the literature growing interest for uniform corrosion prediction/inference. Discussion about uniform corrosion assessment, related parameters, and modelling and data collection procedures and limitations were presented in this study's Part 1, resulting from applications of commercial models in operational cases. In counterpoint, over-criticism and oversimplification about commercial models' performance were noticed in a literature review cycle, with inappropriate/insufficient applications and/or superficial evaluations, suggesting imprecise and accurate results, respectively, both approaches recurrently neglecting statistical and uncertainty discussions. This research compares different scenarios through an uncertainty evaluation perspective, analysing information from laboratorial gravimetric tests rehearsing operation, offshore inspections in christmas trees pipelines, and industrial manufacturing tolerances. As results, inherent uncertainty is identified for uniform corrosion process, uncertainty-based adequate prediction range and production lines' hazardous position are established, and discussion about uncertainties is addressed. Procedures for comparing identical laboratorial tests and models' predictions against measurements allow a performance comparison between available models, characterizing their prediction domains in accordance with their predictive behaviour in terms of conservatism. • This work applies corrosion prediction models on a robust laboratorial database rehearsing oil and gas production operation. • Offshore christmas tree's real inspections are analysed, allowing conclusions about uniform corrosion behavior on real cases. • Uncertainty quantification leads to assertive predictictive region definition for the models used. • Discrepancy evaluation leads to the definition of sub and overpredictive regions for the models analysed. • This work presents an innovative discussion regarding the generalized corrosion uncertainty factors and consequent gaps.