Effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of the endangered Hainan gymnure (Neohylomys hainanensis) on Hainan Island

Climate change is a key driver of threats to global biodiversity; therefore, assessing its temporal and spatial impacts on endangered species and their habitats is crucial for developing adaptive conservation strategies. This study investigated the habitat dynamics of the endangered Hainan gymnure (Neohylomys hainanensis) by integrating ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt with geospatial analysis using ArcGIS. We considered ten climatic variables, three timepoints (current, 2055, and 2085), and three CO₂ emission scenarios. The results showed that 1) the current potential suitable habitat area is 11,092.14 km² (32.75% of Hainan Island), which is mainly distributed in central Hainan Island; 2) elevation (PC = 78.5%) and Bio1 (PI = 60.0%) are key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of suitable habitat and have synergistic effects; 3) suitable habitats show shrinking trends under the three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Of note, annual average temperatures will significantly increase in the high-altitude areas under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, which will nearly eliminate suitable habitat areas. This study clarifies the geographical distribution range, key limiting factors, and future habitat change trends of N. hainanensis, thereby providing a scientific basis for the species' adaptive conservation and management and offering reference data on the climate response mechanisms of tropical island species.