Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina

This paper analyses historical climate conditions and future climate projections in central-eastern Argentina, focusing on temperature and precipitation patterns. The study assesses the ability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models to represent historical climate variability and generates projections of precipitation and temperature under three combined socioeconomic and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 21st Century. Historical analysis for the 1901–2014 period reveals high correlations between model-simulated and observed temperature. Precipitation simulations are less accurate; however, bias correction introduces notable improvements. Although the models properly recognise mean annual temperature and precipitation cycles, biases appear in the reproduction of the spatial patterns of these variables. Future projections indicate a significant increase in mean annual temperature across all scenarios, with the highest temperature rise in a fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, highlighting the importance of emissions mitigation. Precipitation is projected to increase in all scenarios, particularly in the western part of the study region, with potential implications for hydrology and agriculture. This study emphasises the need for ongoing research and monitoring to enhance our understanding of regional climate vulnerability and to inform local adaptation strategies in the face of a changing climate.