A meta-analysis of effects of vocational skills training on future earnings for unemployed youth

Purpose This study aims to provide comprehensive evidence on the earnings-related outcomes of vocational skills training for unemployed youth across different evaluation periods, identifying the roles of various components of training programs through the comparison of short- and long-term effects. Design/methodology/approach A meta-analysis was conducted, systematically and quantitatively reviewing 17 youth-targeted training programs and extracting 87 effect estimates. Effect sizes of the included studies were then calculated. Findings Overall, vocational skills training not only effectively improves participants’ earnings in the short term (Hedges’g = 0.103) but also sustains positive impacts in the long term (Hedges’g = 0.045). The results of moderator analysis suggest that operating context plays a key role in shaping training effects. Across all periods, workplace-based and blended training yield positive impacts and training programs with subsidies show comparable effectiveness. However, basic skills training and soft skills training appear less likely to contribute to income growth. Finally, training programs delivered by the private sector have remained effective over time. Originality/value Drawing on the analytical framework that integrates operating context, program design, and program implementation with evaluation periods, this meta-analysis reveals how specific components shape training effects across different time horizons, thereby addressing a critical knowledge gap in previous studies.