JMIP2 Part 3: The pace of hydrogen and electricity adoption in Japan’s demand-side decarbonization

• Under the net-zero scenario, the total final energy demand in Japan decreases by about 30% by 2050 compared to 2020. • Electricity is projected to potentially constitute approximately 50% or more of total final energy consumption. • The adoption of hydrogen is projected to increase from a negligible baseline to approximately 13% of the energy mix in 2050, with an accelerated growth trajectory anticipated post-2040. • Hydrogen is effective in deep industrial emission reduction, and its necessity increases as emission target being more stringent. Reaching net-zero emissions in Japan depends on technological advancements in energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness across both energy supply and demand sectors. Previous model comparison studies in Japan did not adequately address uncertainties from technological development under the latest net-zero commitment, potentially hindering effective stakeholder decision-making. This study coordinates multiple integrated assessment and energy systems models to analyze consistent policy and technology scenarios, focusing on energy transition pathways in end-use sectors. The results show that, to meet the net-zero requirement, all models exhibit a similar trend of declining total final energy demand, with a reduction of approximately 30% by 2050 relative to 2020. Meanwhile, electricity may account for around 50% or more of the total final energy in 2050 while hydrogen could grow to approximately 13%, with growth accelerating after 2040. Hydrogen is effective in achieving deep reductions in industrial emissions, and its necessity increases as emission targets become more stringent. The government has set ambitious targets for the utilization of hydrogen, but its deployment in end-use sectors requires further policy guidance to facilitate investment. The study emphasizes that end-use energy technology transformations should align with trends in both imported clean energy costs and domestic renewable energy costs.