Urban Spatial Structure and Vehicle Miles Traveled in 461 U.S. Cities

This study investigates the effects of socioeconomic characteristics, density, built environment, and urban spatial structure on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) across 461 urbanized areas in the United States. Using multiple regression models, we compare the explanatory power of conventional variables with those representing the spatial distribution of major urban elements, such as population, employment, land use, and travel demand to city centers. The results show that population-weighted distance to the city center and the contiguity of high-intensity land use significantly influence vehicle travel, with greater distances from city centers and more fragmented land use leading to higher VMT. Models incorporating urban spatial structure variables exhibit improved explanatory power and better fit than those including only socioeconomic, density, and built environment variables. These findings demonstrate that urban spatial structure captures key aspects of vehicle travel behavior that are overlooked by traditional measures. Policy implications include the promotion of compact, mixed-use development, infill and brownfield redevelopment, and urban growth boundaries to reduce vehicle dependence. The study highlights the importance of spatial planning in managing urban travel demand and offers a refined analytical framework for examining the interplay between urban form and mobility.