Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon footprint pressure in China's equipment manufacturing industry

Introduction The equipment manufacturing industry is a key source of industrial carbon emissions in China. To assess its environmental impact comprehensively, this study introduces the concept of carbon footprint pressure (ECFP) integrating both carbon sources and vegetation carbon sinks. Methods Based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020, the study combines LMDI decomposition, Tapio decoupling, and extended STIRPAT spatial econometric models to analyze temporal and spatial evolution patterns and influencing factors. Results The ECFP in China's equipment manufacturing industry shows an overall upward trend, spreading from coastal to inland provinces. Employment, economic expansion, and technological effects are key drivers. Some eastern regions achieve weak decoupling between economic growth and ECFP, while central and western regions show unstable coupling. Discussion Green technology innovation and industrial upgrading can mitigate ECFP both locally and across neighboring regions. The results provide a theoretical basis for regional emission reduction and coordinated low-carbon development.