Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Water Ecological Resilience and Non-Stationarity of Influencing Factors: a Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Water ecological governance is recognized as a critical challenge for achieving high-quality development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). Systematically understanding the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of water ecological resilience in this region holds significant practical implications for sustainable development. This study adopts the DPSIR framework and applies the entropy-weight TOPSIS method to measure water ecological resilience across the YREB. Spatial and temporal evolution patterns are analyzed using kernel density estimation, Theil index, and spatial autocorrelation modeling. Additionally, geodetectors and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) models are employed to explore the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of influencing factors. The findings reveal that the overall water ecological resilience of the YREB remained low during the study period but exhibited a “fluctuating upward” trend. Regionally, a pattern of “downstream > upstream > midstream” was observed. Significant spatial disparities were evident, with the kernel density curve showing a bimodal distribution and pronounced polarization. Spatial differences from 2013 to 2022 indicated a “W-shaped” trend in Theil index values, with a general decline, primarily driven by inter-regional disparities. Spatial dynamic analysis revealed a spatial pattern of “high resilience on both sides and a low-value through in the middle,” indicating a notable clustering effect. Key influencing factors included economic development (ED), population density (PD), environmental regulation (ER), ecological investment (EI), and green innovation (GI). The strength and directional impact of these factors varied across time and regions.