Follow the money: Can REDD+ finance compete with established and emerging land investments in Mai-Ndombe, Democratic Republic of Congo?

Climate finance is often considered an avenue of transformational change to address deforestation. However, financial dynamics influencing forests extend beyond climate related initiatives; forest landscapes are subject to a myriad of actors and interests. This paper examines if and how REDD+ finance can lead to transformative decisions in a complex political landscape of competing land uses, interests, and financial flows in Mai-Ndombe, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We employ a critical global political economy perspective to investigate inequality within global forest governance. We use a telecoupling framing combined with open-source research methods to examine public information and databases on company ownership and structures, to capture flows of finance and commodities. Our study demonstrates that, in Mai- Ndombe, climate finance incentives have limited influence in the presence of dominant interests and investments in extractive activities; particularly when mining, livestock, timber, and carbon concessions overlap, and oil exploration permits are in use by state and private sector actors. REDD+ strategies in the DRC inadvertently reinforce historical inequalities by focusing on local interventions; this overlooks persistent power relations that are visible in discursive practices, financial flows, and incentive structures centering around extractive land uses. The methods and data in this paper provide insights into how finance and investments in both climate change mitigation and industrial land use are driving land-use change and inadvertently reinforcing inequality. We encourage funders, policymakers, and researchers at the intersection of climate and forests to move beyond oversimplified narratives of who is to blame for deforestation, and instead trace the financial flows to examine who actually benefits. • We examine whether REDD+ finance can lead to transformative change in a landscape of competing interests in Mai-Ndombe. • We use telecoupling with open-source databases on land use activities and company ownership to capture flows of finance. • REDD+ in Mai-Ndombe has limited influence amidst major investments in mining, oil, livestock, timber, and carbon concessions. • Funders and policymakers should consider who benefits from forest exploitation and land use-change around REDD+ policies. • Tracing financial flows reveals how climate and extractive investments drive land-use change and may reinforce inequality.