Impact of climate shocks on poverty in India

This study explores the relationship between climatic, economic, and social factors and poverty across districts in India, focusing on the role of climate shocks in exacerbating poverty. Using a logistic regression model, the research investigates how variables such as climatic factors (temperature variability, precipitation, and flood-affected areas), economic structure (tertiary sector share in GSDP, primary sector dependence, and drought-prone areas), and social factors (Scheduled Tribe population) influence poverty rates. The findings suggest that climate shocks, especially variability in maximum temperature and flood impacts are significantly associated with higher poverty rates. Conversely, a higher share of the tertiary sector in district-level GSDP is linked to reduced poverty, emphasizing the role of economic diversification and human capital development in building climate resilience. Furthermore, districts with greater dependence on the primary sector, particularly in drought-prone regions, exhibit stronger correlations with poverty. Additionally, spatial analysis reveals that some agriculturally dependent regions experience lower poverty levels, likely due to stronger institutional arrangements such as better infrastructure and access to markets. This highlights the importance of regional context in shaping poverty outcomes. The study underscores the need for integrated and locally tailored policy interventions that promote economic transformation, climate adaptation, and institutional strengthening. It contributes to the existing literature on climate-induced poverty and aligns with the objectives of SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and SDG 13 (Climate Action), offering practical insights for targeted policy responses in climate-vulnerable regions.