Tourist Carrying Capacity for Sustainable Development of Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park Ecotourism

This study presents a comprehensive carrying capacity assessment for Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park (GGPNP), a key biodiversity hotspot in Java, Indonesia, integrating Physical Carrying Capacity (PCC), Real Carrying Capacity (RCC), and social-ecological correction factors. Using a PCC-RCC framework that combines GIS-based slope and land-cover analysis with an online visitor survey (camping n = 34; recreation n = 31) and 2020–2024 visitation statistics, we evaluated sustainable limits for hiking, camping, and recreation. Ecological and social constraints, primarily steep topography (>25% slope) and preferences for uncrowded conditions, reduce effective capacity by 96–99% from theoretical physical limits. The resulting daily RCC thresholds are 210–282 persons for hiking across three main trails, 131–204 for camping, and 803 for recreation, demonstrating that spatial availability is a poor predictor of sustainable capacity. Comparison with 2020–2024 visitation data reveals systemic overuse of the recreation zone on non-working days and pinpoints October as the most critical month. Given the park’s financial constraints, we recommend adopting dynamic visitor limits, developing a fee structure that reflects ecological value and demand, and diversifying revenue streams to mitigate degradation and ensure long-term financial and environmental sustainability.