Modeling the effects of seawater pH and temperature on the growth and biofilm formation of Cobetia sp. MM1IDA2H-1 using nonlinear GAMLSS and residual mixed-effects analysis

Introduction Understanding how environmental factors modulate microbial growth and biofilm formation is essential for predicting ecosystem dynamics and biotechnological outcomes. In this study, we investigated the responses of Cobetia sp. MM1IDA2H-1 across controlled temperature and pH gradients, combining laboratory assays with advanced predictive models. Understanding these effects is key for predicting bacterial behavior in ecosystems. Methods We examined the growth and biofilm responses of Cobetia sp. MM1IDA2H-1 across controlled temperature and pH gradients, combining laboratory assays with nonlinear modeling. kinetics were analyzed using logistic functions within the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework, while residual variability was assessed through linear mixed-effects modeling to quantify fixed and random effects. Results The two-step approach yielded robust estimates, revealing a clear trade-off between strategies for planktonic growth and colonization. Maximum growth rates were observed at mesophilic temperatures (35–37°C) and slightly acidic to neutral pH, whereas biofilm formation increased under alkaline conditions (pH ≥ 8) and across a broader thermal range. Discussion Our findings highlight suggests a coordinated interplay among bacterial proliferation, migration and colonization strategies in dynamic environments. The predictive quality of the GAMLSS models enabled extrapolation of laboratory patterns to realistic ecosystem scenarios, demonstrating their potential for both environmental forecasting, marine microbial and biotechnology studies. This integrative framework bridges marine microbiology with marine ecology.