Active-learning inspired <i>ab initio</i> theory-experiment loop approach for management of material defects: Application to superconducting qubits

Surface oxides are associated with two-level systems (TLSs) that degrade the performance of niobium-based superconducting quantum computing devices. To address this, we introduce a predictive framework for selecting metal capping layers that inhibit niobium oxide formation. Using DFT-calculated oxygen interstitial and vacancy energies as thermodynamic descriptors, we train a logistic regression model on a limited set of experimental outcomes to successfully predict the likelihood of oxide formation beneath different capping materials. This approach identifies Zr, Hf, and Ta as effective diffusion barriers. Our analysis further reveals that the oxide formation energy per oxygen atom serves as an excellent standalone descriptor for predicting barrier performance. By combining this new descriptor with lattice mismatch as a secondary criterion to promote structurally coherent interfaces, we identify Zr, Ta, and Sc as especially promising candidates. This closed-loop strategy integrates first-principles theory, machine learning, and limited experimental data to enable rational design of next-generation materials.