Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Abstract. Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

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Publication Details

Journal
Biogeosciences
Published
2025-11-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6963-2025
Primary Topic
Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Alice Stearns, Nate G. McDowell, Teri O’Meara, Roberta Bittencourt Peixoto et al.
Biogeosciences
Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
article

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Alice Stearns, Nate G. McDowell, Teri O’Meara, Roberta Bittencourt Peixoto, Nicholas Ward, Matthew Kovach, Kenneth Kemner, Yilin Fang, Nathan Conroy, Stephanie J. Wilson, Vanessa Bailey, Stephanie Pennington, Fausto Machado‐Silva, Donnie Day, Michael Weintraub, Matthew L. Kirwan, Junyan Ding, Kendalynn A. Morris, Peter Thornton, Peter Regier, Charles D. Koven, J. Patrick Megonigal, Letícia Sandoval
article en

Abstract

Abstract. Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

BiogeosciencesVol. 22(22)
Joint Global Change Research Institute (US), Argonne National Laboratory (US), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US), Los Alamos National Laboratory (US), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US), William & Mary (US), Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (US), Occidental College (US), Washington State University (US), University of Toledo (US)
National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, Biological and Environmental Research
Openalex Percentile: Top 66%
Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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