Risk assessment in Korean seaweed aquaculture under climate change scenarios

Ocean warming driven by climate change is accelerating globally, with Korean waters showing faster sea surface temperature (SST) increases than the global average, posing substantial threats to the fisheries sector. Seaweed, which accounts for approximately 76% of total aquaculture production, is highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations and vulnerable to climate impacts. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on three types of major cultivated seaweed in Korea (kelp, sea mustard, laver) by estimating damage probabilities specific to species and production regions under four SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) across three periods (2030, 2050, 2100). These probabilities were combined with recent five-year average production data (2019 2023) to estimate economic losses. The results revealed pronounced differences in damage probabilities and economic losses by species and production region. Specifically, kelp consistently exhibited damage probabilities under all scenarios, and aquaculture in its primary production area, Jeollanam-do, was projected to become increasingly difficult. In contrast, laver and sea mustard were exposed to risks but showed greater potential for continued cultivation. Notably, although laver exhibited lower damage probabilities than kelp, its higher unit value resulted in the largest projected economic losses among the three species. These findings provide a critical basis for national and regional governments to design adaptive strategies that strengthen the resilience and sustainability of seaweed aquaculture under climate change.