Rising carbon emissions will exacerbate the temperature difference in the European Union countries from the grey forecasting perspective

Purpose There is a close relationship between carbon emission and climate change, and the climate issue is a common concern for all countries today. Global warming affects the ecological environment and even human health. In this paper, the non-equal order spatial disturbance grey forecasting model is established to predict the temperature difference of European Union countries under different carbon emission scenarios. Design/methodology/approach The non-equal order spatial disturbance grey forecasting model is established to predict the temperature difference of European Union countries under different carbon emission scenarios. Findings The results show that the temperature difference in most European Union countries is on the rise under the carbon increase scenario. Under the scenario of carbon reduction, European Union countries show a rise, fall or flat state. But overall, the temperature difference in most countries under the carbon increase scenario is greater than that under the carbon reduction scenario. This suggests that reducing carbon dioxide emissions is beneficial to narrow the temperature difference and mitigate climate change to a certain extent. Originality/value The research conclusions are conducive to providing scientific guidance for the formulation of carbon reduction and emission reduction policies and contributing to the achievement of climate goals.