CORE-D: county resolution energy demand projections for multi-scale modelling and multi-level governance dialogues in Kenya

County-level energy planning within Kenya is becoming increasingly important and relevant following the evolving governance system and energy planning responsibilities. This paper presents county-resolution energy demand projections alongside the underlying energy demand models in support of both integrated national planning, and county energy planning. The COunty-REsolution energy system Demand models (CORE-D) introduce a new methodological approach to overcome historic energy planning barriers. It is based on a spatial disaggregation of whole energy system demand modelling through downscaling to produce individual county demand models, facilitating the future incorporation of county level data, priorities, and plans for demand assessment. CORE-D can support county energy planning processes by enabling the development of, and facilitating stakeholder discussion on, energy demand projections under various county-level scenarios. In providing a consistent framework for energy demand analysis across all counties the approach particularly supports a coherent integration of county plans to national-level analyses and policy processes. This paper, through presenting baseline national projections at various scales, alongside demonstrative scenarios for Kilifi county which align county projections to existing nationally employed modelling methodologies, provides a foundational tool for subsequent stakeholder-driven enhancements, capacity building exercises, integration of richer and updated datasets, and robust decision-making analyses. The models, and methodologies, have been developed through collaboration with both county and national stakeholders within Kenya.