Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Active Fire in China (2003–2024): Regional Patterns and Land Cover Associations

Fire in China, driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors, significantly influences ecological stability. This study provides a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of active fires across China from 2003 to 2024 using MODIS Collection 6.1 active fire and land cover products. Our results reveal a significant national decline in fire counts since 2016, accompanied by with a marked geographical shift in hotspots from East China to Northeast China. It clarifies that croplands and savannas are the main fire-prone land covers, yet they have also experienced the most substantial decline in fire counts. East China (46.8%) and Central China (27.1%) were the largest contributors to the reduction in cropland fire counts. Temporal displacement toward nighttime straw burning was observed in East China. The decline in average fire radiative power (FRP) of daytime agricultural fires indicates that straw burning bans effectively reduced both the frequency and intensity of fires. Persistent savanna and forest fires are highly clustered in Southern China, while new emerging grassland fires are concentrated in Western China. Persistent cropland fires overlap with emerging zones in Northeast and Central China. Our study can assist in optimizing targeted fire policies and supporting better fire risk management.