Predictive Benthic Habitat Mapping Reveals Significant Loss of Zostera marina in the Puck Lagoon, Baltic Sea, over Six Decades

This research presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatial extent and temporal change in benthic habitats within the Puck Lagoon in the southern Baltic Sea, utilizing integrated machine learning classification and multi-sourced remote sensing. Object-based image analysis was integrated with Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbors algorithms for benthic habitat classification based on airborne bathymetric LiDAR (ALB), multibeam echosounder (MBES), satellite bathymetry, and high-resolution aerial photography. Ground-truth data collected by 2023 field surveys were supplemented with long temporal datasets (2010–2023) for seagrass meadow analysis. Boruta feature selection showed that geomorphometric variables (aspect, slope, and terrain ruggedness index) and optical features (ALB intensity and spectral bands) were the most significant discriminators in each classification case. Binary classification models were more effective (93.3% accuracy in the presence/absence of Zostera marina) compared to advanced multi-class models (43.3% for EUNIS Level 4/5), which identified the inherent equilibrium between ecological complexity and map validity. Change detection between contemporary and 1957 habitat data revealed extensive Zostera marina loss, with 84.1–99.0% cover reduction across modeling frameworks. Seagrass coverage declined from 61.15% of the study area to just 9.70% or 0.63%, depending on the model. Seasonal mismatch may inflate loss estimates by 5–15%, but even adjusted values (70–94%) indicate severe ecosystem degradation. Spatial exchange components exhibited patterns of habitat change, whereas net losses in total were many orders of magnitude larger than any redistribution in space. These findings recorded the most severe seagrass habitat destruction ever described within Baltic Sea ecosystems and emphasize the imperative for conservation action at the landscape level. The methodology framework provides a reproducible model for analogous change detection analysis in shallow nearshore habitats, creating critical baselines to inform restoration planning and biodiversity conservation activities. It also demonstrated both the capabilities and limitations of automatic techniques for habitat monitoring.